After the United States passed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2000, America had been enjoying a preferential trade relationship with 32 sub-Saharan African countries, which allowed them free access to the U.S. market without paying tariffs. The pact spurred economic development in sectors such as textile, agriculture and automobile industries, creating over 300,000 direct jobs and over a million indirect jobs in the continent.
Nevertheless, at the beginning of the presidency of Donald Trump, trade volumes under AGOA started shrinking. By 2023, African exports to the U.S were decreased to $9.3 billion as compared to a high of $66 billion in 2008. Agronomotive exports, which have previously been a success story of AGOA, have dropped to only $344 million in 2019, down dramatically since 2016 when the figure was 1.5 billion. The economic policy set forth by Trump, America First, redefined the economic relationship between the United States and other nations, bringing on board tariffs and renegotiations, making it less predictable on the part of African exporters.
The expiry of AGOA in 2025 has now revealed the cumulative effects of these changes in policy. A major economic uncertainty that a lot of African countries are in is awaiting the future of its trade relations with the U.S. particularly in the labor intensive sectors that require preferential access to the American market.
The impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty on African economies
Trump administration tariff policies constituted a fundamental part of its trade strategy even to African countries once enjoying the benefits of AGOA. The case of the automotive industry in South Africa shows the effects, as tariffs have increased as high as 30 percent with the exports declining by more than 85 percent by mid 2025. The textile industry in Lesotho was subjected to punitive tariffs of up to 50 percent, which was lowered to 15 percent by marginal relief. Such actions decimated export incomes, leading to factories being shut down and their labour force being laid off.
In addition to the direct effect on the volume of trade, the Trump-era tariffs upset whole supply chains. Weak U.S. demand undermined investor confidence and postponed infrastructure improvements in export ports. Order cancellations and capital flight were recorded by manufacturers in Madagascar, Kenya and Ethiopia as trade with the U.S. became less viable.
Delayed AGOA renewal and investor hesitation
Although there were positive indications, the Trump administration still took a long to renew AGOA before it was due to expire in September 2025. A sense of lack of urgency by the executive has increased political gridlock in Washington killing bipartisan bills that would normally sail through with ease in previous years.
This latitude has caused a lot of anxiety among the African governments and entrepreneurs. It cannot be just a technical uncertainty; it impacts financial planning and investment decisions, and the employment in the areas, which rely on the duty-free access the most. Absence of any particular post-AGOA policy has compelled some African companies to start considering options of other trading partners, especially with China and the European Union.
Diplomatic missteps and the erosion of US-African trade relations
The Trump administration treated Africa in a transactional way meaning bilateral deals rather than multilateral interaction. Although it was a common foreign policy practice in the U.S. as a whole during the Trump administration, it constrained the strategic richness of U.S.-Africa trade diplomacy. The inability to give priority on timely renewal of AGOA is symptomatic of a more general trend of diplomatic withdrawal out of Africa.
This vacuum is in a period where the geostrategic relevance of Africa is increasing. The continent contains an increasing proportion of the global critical mineral deposits, such as cobalt and rare earth elements that are crucial to green technologies and the military. But the U.S. policy did not turn this strategic awareness into a long-term economic partnership.
Competition from global economic actors
Due to the stagnation in U.S. policy, China and the European Union increased their presence in African markets by launching long term investment initiatives and broad based trade agreements. African countries have more predictable engagement and infrastructure financing opportunities through the European Union Economic Partnership Agreements and the Belt and Road Initiative of China. Failure by the U.S. to demonstrate consistent trade policy undermines its position in the fast changing international environment.
According to the Diplomatic analysts, Congressional backing of AGOA is very strong, however, it is the executive leadership that is decisive in providing continuity. That leadership under Trump shifted domestic issues at the expense of Africa as part of the central economic diplomacy.
Stakeholders reflect on Trump’s economic legacy and African futures
The leaders of the African industry and labor unions are concerned with the long-term consequences of the AGOA drop all over the continent. The managers of apparel factories in Kenya have indicated massive layoffs of workforce as a result of declining U. S. orders. The labor unions in Lesotho estimate that a quarter to half of workers in the textile industry in the country may be laid off without the renewal of AGOA. Women are the ones who are affected by these job losses disproportionately since they comprise the largest workforce in the sector.
Trade experts also remark that AGOA was not a complete solution to development, but it did offer a solid framework, which African countries could use. Its erosion deprives countries of a major pillar in terms of export-led growth strategies, particularly those countries that are landlocked and lack access to the market.
Calls for a reciprocal and modernized framework
Numerous stakeholders stress the necessity of a new trade setup, the one that will be reciprocal and respond to the existing economic reality. Some of the recommendations are to diversify the export base of the country beyond the textile industries, to enhance the digital trade provisions and to incorporate sustainable development standards, which would meet the interests of both the U.S and African sides.
Analysts such as Malick Sane believe that the legacy left by Trump has institutionalized the mistrust towards foreign commerce, especially when there seems to be competition between it and the United States industries. This will make it more difficult to restore or reform preferential trade agreements such as AGOA in future. Furthermore, the fact that the list of critical minerals covered by AGOA includes the imports made by no less than 5.5% of the imports as of 2023 indicates the lack of opportunities in the areas of strategic importance.
Strategic implications for future US-Africa trade policy
The current US-Africa trade problems necessitate a change of strategy. Restoring trust will not come at an easy price; as rebirth will require new accountability, win-win and shielding mechanisms against the sort of sudden policy changes that were the order of the day during the Trump years. African leaders are becoming more and more vocal with regards to their need to have trade relationships which will guarantee them security and long term investment incentives.
The second stage of the U.S.-Africa trade relations is expected to be a new framework negotiation that will be based on the limitations of the AGOA. It may be in the form of a new AGOA, it may be a more comprehensive U.S.-Africa free trade agreement, or a bilateral agreement but the urgency is to restore predictability and reinstate trust.
Political will and the 2025 crossroads
With AGOA’s expiration coinciding with a critical election cycle in the United States, political will remains a decisive factor. Trump’s protectionist influence has left an imprint on trade policy, and any future administration will have to contend with its domestic legacies. However, African partners are increasingly positioning themselves as equal actors in trade negotiations, with a growing preference for agreements grounded in reciprocity and shared growth.
The coming months offer an opportunity for the United States to reframe its economic engagement with Africa. Whether this moment is used to repair trade relations or surrender influence to rising global competitors will shape both African development trajectories and America’s strategic posture on the continent for years ahead.
