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No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

Page 3 of 5 Previous 1 2 3 4 5 Next

\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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It also\u00a0urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u2018I thought about suicide\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u201cThey must urgently reverse these decisions. And we must confront the fundamental drivers of starvation \u2013 global hunger is not about lack of food, but a lack of equality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2018I thought about suicide\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u201cThe richest countries are slashing their food aid even as millions of people go hungry; this is an extraordinary political failure,\u201d Oxfam\u2019s executive director, Gabriela Bucher, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThey must urgently reverse these decisions. And we must confront the fundamental drivers of starvation \u2013 global hunger is not about lack of food, but a lack of equality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2018I thought about suicide\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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The statement<\/a> said that the amount of additional funding called for by the UN\u2019s World Food Programme amounts to $5.5bn, which is equivalent to less than 26 hours of the $1.9 trillion that countries spend per year on the military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe richest countries are slashing their food aid even as millions of people go hungry; this is an extraordinary political failure,\u201d Oxfam\u2019s executive director, Gabriela Bucher, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThey must urgently reverse these decisions. And we must confront the fundamental drivers of starvation \u2013 global hunger is not about lack of food, but a lack of equality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2018I thought about suicide\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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In a joint statement, the aid groups noted that a year on since the UN warned of \u201cfamine of biblical proportions<\/a>\u201d, donors have only funded five percent of this year\u2019s $7.8bn food security appeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The statement<\/a> said that the amount of additional funding called for by the UN\u2019s World Food Programme amounts to $5.5bn, which is equivalent to less than 26 hours of the $1.9 trillion that countries spend per year on the military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe richest countries are slashing their food aid even as millions of people go hungry; this is an extraordinary political failure,\u201d Oxfam\u2019s executive director, Gabriela Bucher, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThey must urgently reverse these decisions. And we must confront the fundamental drivers of starvation \u2013 global hunger is not about lack of food, but a lack of equality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2018I thought about suicide\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u201cNeeds already cannot be met, and we are increasingly likely to face multiple famines if we do not respond now,\u201d the letter, which came in conjunction with the UN\u2019s call for action to avert famine, added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a joint statement, the aid groups noted that a year on since the UN warned of \u201cfamine of biblical proportions<\/a>\u201d, donors have only funded five percent of this year\u2019s $7.8bn food security appeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The statement<\/a> said that the amount of additional funding called for by the UN\u2019s World Food Programme amounts to $5.5bn, which is equivalent to less than 26 hours of the $1.9 trillion that countries spend per year on the military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe richest countries are slashing their food aid even as millions of people go hungry; this is an extraordinary political failure,\u201d Oxfam\u2019s executive director, Gabriela Bucher, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThey must urgently reverse these decisions. And we must confront the fundamental drivers of starvation \u2013 global hunger is not about lack of food, but a lack of equality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2018I thought about suicide\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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\u201cThe combined impacts of conflict, climate change and inequality, coupled with the COVID-19 crisis, have led to an acute food insecurity situation around the world,\u201d the letter, whose key signatories include Oxfam, Save the Children, and the International Rescue Committee, read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cNeeds already cannot be met, and we are increasingly likely to face multiple famines if we do not respond now,\u201d the letter, which came in conjunction with the UN\u2019s call for action to avert famine, added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a joint statement, the aid groups noted that a year on since the UN warned of \u201cfamine of biblical proportions<\/a>\u201d, donors have only funded five percent of this year\u2019s $7.8bn food security appeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The statement<\/a> said that the amount of additional funding called for by the UN\u2019s World Food Programme amounts to $5.5bn, which is equivalent to less than 26 hours of the $1.9 trillion that countries spend per year on the military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe richest countries are slashing their food aid even as millions of people go hungry; this is an extraordinary political failure,\u201d Oxfam\u2019s executive director, Gabriela Bucher, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThey must urgently reverse these decisions. And we must confront the fundamental drivers of starvation \u2013 global hunger is not about lack of food, but a lack of equality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2018I thought about suicide\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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In an\u00a0open letter<\/a>\u00a0addressed to world leaders on Tuesday, groups working to fight against inequality said up to 270 million people are acutely food insecure with millions \u201cteetering on the very edge of famine\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe combined impacts of conflict, climate change and inequality, coupled with the COVID-19 crisis, have led to an acute food insecurity situation around the world,\u201d the letter, whose key signatories include Oxfam, Save the Children, and the International Rescue Committee, read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cNeeds already cannot be met, and we are increasingly likely to face multiple famines if we do not respond now,\u201d the letter, which came in conjunction with the UN\u2019s call for action to avert famine, added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a joint statement, the aid groups noted that a year on since the UN warned of \u201c famine of biblical proportions<\/a>\u201d, donors have only funded five percent of this year\u2019s $7.8bn food security appeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The statement<\/a> said that the amount of additional funding called for by the UN\u2019s World Food Programme amounts to $5.5bn, which is equivalent to less than 26 hours of the $1.9 trillion that countries spend per year on the military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe richest countries are slashing their food aid even as millions of people go hungry; this is an extraordinary political failure,\u201d Oxfam\u2019s executive director, Gabriela Bucher, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThey must urgently reverse these decisions. And we must confront the fundamental drivers of starvation \u2013 global hunger is not about lack of food, but a lack of equality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2018I thought about suicide\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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More than 250 NGOs have urgently called on international governments to increase aid and save more than 34 million people on the brink of starvation this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In an\u00a0open letter<\/a>\u00a0addressed to world leaders on Tuesday, groups working to fight against inequality said up to 270 million people are acutely food insecure with millions \u201cteetering on the very edge of famine\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe combined impacts of conflict, climate change and inequality, coupled with the COVID-19 crisis, have led to an acute food insecurity situation around the world,\u201d the letter, whose key signatories include Oxfam, Save the Children, and the International Rescue Committee, read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cNeeds already cannot be met, and we are increasingly likely to face multiple famines if we do not respond now,\u201d the letter, which came in conjunction with the UN\u2019s call for action to avert famine, added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a joint statement, the aid groups noted that a year on since the UN warned of \u201c famine of biblical proportions<\/a>\u201d, donors have only funded five percent of this year\u2019s $7.8bn food security appeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The statement<\/a> said that the amount of additional funding called for by the UN\u2019s World Food Programme amounts to $5.5bn, which is equivalent to less than 26 hours of the $1.9 trillion that countries spend per year on the military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe richest countries are slashing their food aid even as millions of people go hungry; this is an extraordinary political failure,\u201d Oxfam\u2019s executive director, Gabriela Bucher, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThey must urgently reverse these decisions. And we must confront the fundamental drivers of starvation \u2013 global hunger is not about lack of food, but a lack of equality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2018I thought about suicide\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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originally published:<\/em> 20 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/4\/20\/without-urgent-aid-ngos-warn-millions-at-brink-of-famine<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
More than 250 NGOs have urgently called on international governments to increase aid and save more than 34 million people on the brink of starvation this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In an\u00a0 open letter<\/a>\u00a0addressed to world leaders on Tuesday, groups working to fight against inequality said up to 270 million people are acutely food insecure with millions \u201cteetering on the very edge of famine\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe combined impacts of conflict, climate change and inequality, coupled with the COVID-19 crisis, have led to an acute food insecurity situation around the world,\u201d the letter, whose key signatories include Oxfam, Save the Children, and the International Rescue Committee, read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cNeeds already cannot be met, and we are increasingly likely to face multiple famines if we do not respond now,\u201d the letter, which came in conjunction with the UN\u2019s call for action to avert famine, added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a joint statement, the aid groups noted that a year on since the UN warned of \u201c famine of biblical proportions<\/a>\u201d, donors have only funded five percent of this year\u2019s $7.8bn food security appeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The statement<\/a> said that the amount of additional funding called for by the UN\u2019s World Food Programme amounts to $5.5bn, which is equivalent to less than 26 hours of the $1.9 trillion that countries spend per year on the military.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe richest countries are slashing their food aid even as millions of people go hungry; this is an extraordinary political failure,\u201d Oxfam\u2019s executive director, Gabriela Bucher, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThey must urgently reverse these decisions. And we must confront the fundamental drivers of starvation \u2013 global hunger is not about lack of food, but a lack of equality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2018I thought about suicide\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
While at least $5.5bn is needed in urgent food and agricultural assistance to avert the imminent risk of famine, millions more is needed to provide health care, clean water and other essential, basic services, the statement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the UN estimated that 270 million people were either at high risk of, or already facing, severe levels of hunger. Some 174 people in 58 countries have reached that level and are at risk of dying from malnutrition or lack of food, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warned that this figure will likely increase in the coming months if no actions are taken, and noted that conflict is the biggest driver of global hunger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key conflicts in Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Northern Nigeria are forcing millions to the brink of starvation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The joint statement included testimonies from people living in conflict zones and dire humanitarian conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fadya, from Lahj governorate in Yemen, recalled how she considered suicide \u201cseveral times\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen humanitarian workers came to my hut, they thought I had food because smoke was coming from my kitchen. But I was not cooking food for my children \u2013 instead I could only give them hot water and herbs, after which they went to sleep hungry,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI thought about suicide several times but I did not do it because of my children.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The open letter further warned that funding alone is not sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe situation requires urgent action, at a scale we are simply not seeing. If no urgent action is taken, lives will be lost.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Countries need to take immediate political action to stop these conflicts from continuing, and need to address rising inequality, the groups said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is imperative that we raise our collective voices to secure the international attention this cause deserves before it is too late,\u201d they said in closing remarks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"NGOs call for urgent aid as millions on brink of starvation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ngos-call-for-urgent-aid-as-millions-on-brink-of-starvation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:33","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4905","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4783,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:18:03","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 18 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/ramadan-sales-lowest-10-years-%E2%80%94-acc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMMAN \u2014 President of the Amman Chamber of Commerce (ACC) Khalil Haj Tawfiq, who is also the Head of the General Association for Foodstuffs Merchants of Jordan (GAFJO), on Saturday said that the current Ramadan sales are at their lowest in 10 years, after witnessing a 50 per cent drop due to the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a statement carried by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, Haj Tawfiq said that the commercial sector has been \u201cstaggered\u201d by low sales since the first days of Ramadan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He attributed this to the partial curfew hours that exhausted merchants, and the decline in purchasing food and basic products despite existing price reductions and offers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He added that the prices of food, supplies and basic materials are stable, except for the high prices of local poultry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He pointed out that the offers on products were the largest this Ramadan, as a result of the increase in the number of shops, and their use of social media for promotion and marketing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stressing merchants\u2019 concern over the continuation of the partial curfew, he called for allowing home delivery after Iftar from food stores, bakeries and water stations.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Ramadan sales lowest in 10 years \u2014 ACC","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"ramadan-sales-lowest-in-10-years-acc","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4783","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4771,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-18 21:09:31","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 10 March 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2021\/3\/10\/hrw-questions-official-death-toll-in-equatorial-guinea-explosion<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rights groups have called for a transparent and independent investigation into a series of massive explosions in Equatorial Guinea\u2019s main city of Bata that flattened a military camp and nearby residential areas, killing scores of people and causing widespread destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who has ruled the oil-rich country with an iron fist for 42 years, blamed the military for \u201cnegligence\u201d in stocking ammunition so close to populated areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, state television reported 105 people were killed and 615 were wounded by the conflagration at the camp of Nkoa Ntoma on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing Equatorial Guinea-focused human rights group EG Justice, said that \u201cbased on the number of bodies pulled from the rubble, the actual number of victims is much higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It also\u00a0 urged<\/a>\u00a0donors and aid groups to send support directly to victims and their families rather than through the government, \u201cgiven high levels of corruption in Equatorial Guinea\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe buck stops with [President Obiang]. We demand full, transparent and independent investigation into the cause and real impact of the catastrophic blasts in Bata,\u201d Tutu Alicante, the United States-based director of EG Justice, wrote on Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The four cataclysmic explosions levelled the camp, which houses special forces, gendarmes and their families, as well as nearby residential areas on Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the evening, Obiang announced a probe into the disaster, stating that the blasts were set off by a local farmer practising slash-and-burn agriculture near stores of explosives and munitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The defence ministry said the explosions were caused by heavy-calibre munitions and emitted \u201cshock waves which totally destroyed numerous homes nearby\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Obiang accused camp officials of negligence, charges he repeated on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW called for international experts to conduct an investigation and said \u201cunverified accounts \u2026 allege that the fire was started by soldiers ordered to burn brush and that it then spread to the armoury, or that it was started during training on the use of explosives gone awry\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc, analysed by The Associated Press news agency, show only charred signs of fire at the site that remained centred on three rectangular buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was no sign of farming around the base and the only land-clearing work seen came from a construction project near those buildings, according to the satellite images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The images show the military base at Bata had been undergoing construction at its southeast corner before the explosion. Old, earth-covered munitions storage facilities appear to have been removed and replaced by new structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A November 16 photo of the base shows three rectangular buildings sitting close to each other, AP reported. A satellite image of the site on Tuesday shows that those structures have disappeared, with only charred debris left scattered around them. That suggests a fire occurred at the site, possibly before the blast. A raging fire will ignite explosives if not contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Three days of mourning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the government has declared three days of mourning beginning on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only Spanish-speaking country in sub-Saharan Africa, Equatorial Guinea is one of the continent\u2019s most insular nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to the difficulty in understanding the full scale of the tragedy, air and sea links have been shut off for weeks because of coronavirus restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only military and government aircraft have travelled to the site on the mainland from the island capital, Malabo, since the explosions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRegardless of what caused the blast, Equatorial Guineans deserve to know why the military is storing explosives in the middle of a populated area,\u201d HRW researcher Sarah Saadoun said in Wednesday\u2019s statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The government has made numerous appeals for international aid since the disaster, with Obiang pointing to a severe economic crisis fuelled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in the price of oil, the country\u2019s main source of revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But HRW warned: \u201cCorruption has long stymied the oil-rich country from developing public services and providing social protection commensurate with its resources, and continued opaque governance puts any aid directly disbursed to the government at high risk of being looted.\u201d<\/p>\n","post_title":"Rights groups urge independent probe into cause of Bata blasts","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"rights-groups-urge-independent-probe-into-cause-of-bata-blasts","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4771","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4741,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 22:09:27","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 02 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/eeradicalization.com\/can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 20 March 2021, the Acting General Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Ibrahim Munir, appeared on the Doha-based Al-Jazeera<\/em> television station to speak about the rapprochement-in-the-making between Cairo and Ankara, which has raised eyebrows, and a storm of speculation, across the region. He seemed confident and very well-informed, telling his followers that no deal had been reached at their expense between Turkish and Egyptian governments. Turkey, he added affirmatively, would never expel members of the Egyptian Brotherhood from its territory. On that, Munir was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Egyptian Islamist leader was echoing a line that had been peddled by Turkish authorities behind closed doors to its Egyptian MB guests. He added that he continued to trust Turkey, calling on his followers to do the same.[1]<\/strong> The fact that he was actually given airtime on Al-Jazeera<\/em>, a long-time supporter of the MB, is in itself testimony that little has changed in Turkish-Qatari backing for the outlawed Islamist group. But he felt obliged to come out and speak in light of an avalanche of media reports about an upcoming Turkish abandonment of the MB, which sent shivers down the spine of many members of the Egyptian MB. One said that Turkey had muzzled thirty members of the MB, ordering them to stop speaking to the press. Another added that Egyptian Islamists in Turkey were being placed under house arrest in anticipation of their deportation, while a third claimed that investigations were underway into the bank accounts of Egyptian MB members based in Turkey.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fact or Fantasy?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these reports about Turkey turning on the MB were more fantasy than fact, however, either the doing of an imaginative journalists or anti-Brotherhood hopefuls\u2014both categories well-represented in the Arab World. All of these reports were seemingly based on recent instructions from Turkish authorities to three Egyptian opposition channels broadcasting from Turkey, ordering them to tone down their criticism of Egyptian ruler Abdul Fattah al-Sisi. The three channels\u2014El-Sharq<\/em>, Watan TV<\/em>, and Mekameleen<\/em>\u2014are all affiliated with the MB and they were threatened with penalties if they defied the order.[3]<\/strong> Immediately El-Sharq<\/em> came out with a statement, apologizing to viewers for not airing an evening episode of a program called, \u201cThe Streets of Egypt,\u201d which was usually dedicated to bashing the Sisi government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putting things into perspective was Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who appeared on Al-Jazeera TV<\/em> to deny that his boss had any intention of closing the three television channels or extraditing members of the Egyptian MB. Aktay described the backlash as \u201cbarking,\u201d adding: \u201cIt is impossible for Turkey to extradite any person, neither to Egypt nor to any country that observes capital punishment\u201d.[4]<\/strong> Prominent Egyptian opposition member Ayman Nour, who manages El-Sharq TV<\/em>, added that Turkish authorities had asked them politely to amend their editorial policy towards Egypt, also denying an order to shut down his channel.[5]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not that these statements did much good; the media speculation about a divorce between Erdogan and the MB continued to mushroom. One report said that a senior delegation had been created to revisit the residency permits of Egyptian Brotherhood members residing in Ankara and Istanbul since 2013. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which admittedly has a very spotty record when it comes to accuracy, added to the wave of speculation, saying that Turkish-backed fighters in Libya have been ordered to pack up and leave in a gesture of goodwill towards the Egyptians. The report added that 9,000 of them have already left the Libya battlefield and were flown out by Turkish intelligence.[6]<\/strong> At least one of those military groups, Faylaq al-Sham, is openly affiliated with the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.[7]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Erdogan Will Not Abandon the Brotherhood<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expecting Erdogan to sell out the MB is akin to asking Iran to abandon Hezbollah or Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Syria. It is wishful thinking that simply will not happen. The Turkish leader has built his entire foreign policy towards the Arab World on supporting non-state players like the MB, using them as pressure cards to destabilize governments and advance his own political ambitions. Without the MB he would lose his leverage in Egyptian, Palestinian, and Syrian affairs, eroding his recent victories in Libya, where he managed to thwart the military offensive of Khalifa Haftar last year, through MB-affiliated mercenaries. He needs Hamas to maintain a threshold in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and their Syrian comrades to keep the territory that he grabbed in Syria during the years 2016-18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abandoning these proxies would be akin to Erdogan shooting himself in the foot, depriving himself of a reliable tool of state policy that he has used, time and again, to influence events in the Arab World. And we need to ask what Erdogan will get in return for such a suicidal policy? Turkish-Egyptian economic relations are on the rise, but they were never suspended despite the political tensions. According to official figures, Egyptian exports to Turkey rose to $2 billion in 2018, slightly up from $1.9 billion in 2017, while Turkish imports stood at an impressive $2.3 billion.[8]<\/strong> With or without a U-turn on the MB, those economic relations are likely to continue. That, of course, is in addition to the fact that he is ideologically committed to the MB, where he started his career as a young politician. It must be remembered that not even the multi-state boycott of Qatar, succeeded in getting its young emir, Tamim Bin Hamad, to abandon Hamas and the MB or amend the pro-Islamist editorial policies of Al-Jazeera TV\u2014and Qatar is much more vulnerable to pressure than Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, it does seem there is an Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement underway, motived by mutual interests and shifting regional dynamics related to the Biden Administration. Turkish-American relations are at all-time low after a recent decision by the White House to recognize the Armenian genocide that took place during the First World War.[9]<\/strong> Turkey is also already facing the threat of sanctions from both the European Union and the United States for, respectively, drilling in waters claimed by Cyprus and purchasing S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. Erdogan feels increasingly vulnerable and isolated, searching for regional and international allies. Many of those on whom he had relied for years are gone, including Egypt\u2019s Mohammad Morsi, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, and more recently, Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Path Ahead<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Official admission from Ankara came on 12 March when Erdogan\u2019s Foreign Minister Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu announced that talks have resumed with Egypt, at both an intelligence and political level, a significant breakthrough, no doubt, after years of tension and animosity resulting from the 2013 ouster of President Morsi, who was backed fully by Erdogan.[10]<\/strong> On 14 March, Egypt\u2019s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri confirmed that talks had indeed resumed, saying that Turkey\u2019s statements of good will needed to be followed with concrete action for the normalization to move forward, explaining why Turkey floated the trial balloon of clipping the wings of the three MB-affiliated channels\u2014as a confidence building measure with Cairo. But for those talks to move forward and bear fruit, Erdogan will have to do better than that, taking serious action against the MB, which\u2014pending some radical, unforeseeable event\u2014he will not do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe disengagement of President Erdogan from the Muslim Brotherhood is nothing but a balloon full of hot air,\u201d said Abdullah Bozkurt, a Turkish journalist affiliated with the Turkish opposition Gulen movement. Speaking to EER, Bozkurt went on: \u201cHe may offer sacrifices [and] concessions, but his overall strategy won\u2019t change,\u201d concluding: \u201cThis recent posturing is not a strategic shift for him and his MB-minded political Islamists in Turkey. He will revert to his old policies openly as soon as the circumstances allow. In the meantime, he will continue lending his government\u2019s support to the MB discreetly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European Eye on Radicalization aims to publish a diversity of perspectives and as such does not endorse the opinions expressed by contributors. The views expressed in this article represent the author alone.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
__________________________________________<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
References<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1] \u201cCairo sees little place for Brotherhood in rapprochement with Ankara\u201d Arab Weekly<\/em> (March 22, 2021): https:\/\/thearabweekly.com\/cairo-sees-little-place-brotherhood-rapprochement-ankara<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[2] Abdul-Razeq, Said. \u201cTurkiya tuqayid harakat al-Ikhwan\u201d Alsharq Alawsat<\/em> (March 20, 2021): shorturl.at\/gDRTZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[3] \u201cTurkey orders Muslim Brotherhood TV channels to stop airing anti-Egypt rhetoric\u201d Al-Arabiya English<\/em> (March 18, 2021): https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2021\/03\/19\/Turkey-orders-Muslim-Brotherhood-TV-channels-to-stop-airing-anti-Egypt-rhetoric<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[4] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[5] \u201cMustashar Erdogan: Lam natlob iglak qanawat muarida li Masr, wa tasleem muarideen lam yutrah\u201d CNN Arabic<\/em> (March 19, 2021): https:\/\/arabic.cnn.com\/middle-east\/article\/2021\/03\/19\/turkey-yasin-aktay-tv-stations-egypt<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[6] \u201cBad Awdet Erdogan ila al-Hudn al-Arabi, tarakub li awdat al-murtazaka al-Souriyeen min Libya ila Souria bi awamer Turkiya\u201d Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (March 19, 2021): shorturl.at\/oHUZ6<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[7] Lefevre, Raphael & El Yassir, Ali. \u201cSham Legion: Syria\u2019s Moderate Islamists,\u201d Carnegie Middle East Center<\/em> (April 15, 2014): https:\/\/carnegie-mec.org\/diwan\/55344<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[8] Cengiz, Sinem. \u201cCan Egypt and Turkey break the ice after years of chilly relations?\u201d Arab News (March 5, 2021): https:\/\/www.arabnews.com\/node\/1820551<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[9] Ghazanchyan, Siranush. \u201cBiden Administration will officially acknowledge Armenian genocide,\u201d Public Radio of Armenia (March 23, 2021): https:\/\/en.armradio.am\/2021\/03\/23\/biden-administration-will-officially-acknowledge-armenian-genocide-political-analyst-ian-bremmer-says\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
[10] Burc Eruygur. \u201cThe Turkish-Egyptian Rapprochement: Prospects for the Future\u201d The Center for Middle East Studies<\/em>, (March 20, 2021): https:\/\/www.orsam.org.tr\/en\/the-turkish-egyptian-rapprochement-prospects-for-the-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Turkey Break With the Muslim Brotherhood?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-turkey-break-with-the-muslim-brotherhood","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4741","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":4727,"post_author":"7","post_date":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_date_gmt":"2021-04-11 21:59:17","post_content":"\n
originally published:<\/em> 01 April 2021<\/strong> | origin:<\/em> https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/04\/can-myanmars-protesters-win\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nobody \u2013 least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s military \u2013 could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most Myanmar experts from the region\u2019s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar\u2019s military would not have been able to crush the revolt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The heady days of the protest are best described by long-time analyst and ex-political prisoner Dr. Khin Zaw Win, writing for openDemocracy<\/a>: \u201cThe protests are marked by their size as well as diversity. It is truly amazing to witness people from different ethnicities, faiths, and occupations from everywhere in Myanmar coming together in a single purpose \u2013 to bring down the dictatorship.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Khin Zaw Win, the director of the Tampadipa Institute in Yangon, also observed that even the much-persecuted Rohingya are included in the movement: \u201cLong-suppressed voices like those of the Rohingya and Muslims are now being seen and heard prominently, and women are participating in strength.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The regime has unquestionably been weakened by the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) that mushroomed all over the country after the coup. The nationwide non-compliance has throttled almost all sectors, from government administration to banks and the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The military has responded with force. A brutal crackdown has turned parts of Yangon and Mandalay into war zones in the last two weeks. The civilian death toll of both protesters and hapless bystanders has surpassed 536, with 2,600 people detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Myanmar specialist at Chiang Mai University, Dr. Ashley South, told The Diplomat that, despite the repression, \u201cIt is impossible for the junta to normalize this coup. Schools have closed down. It is amazing the only functioning schools in Myanmar today are in the liberated zones of ethnic armies such as the KNU [Karen National Union] and parts of Kachin, Mon, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the day of the coup, most the senior National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders were detained, but a number of members of parliament escaped from the capital, Naypyidaw, and set up a an anti-coup Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), as Myanmar\u2019s parliament is known. The committee claims to be the legitimate government<\/a> as a representative of the NLD government that was re-elected in a landslide in the 2020 polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid the brutal crackdown, thousands have left the cities and headed for ethnic states. The CRPH has joined thousands of urban activists in fleeing from the military raids in urban areas on a mission to develop a parallel clandestine government, now being set up in under the protection of the ethnic peoples\u2019 movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However a series of air strikes on Karen villages near the Karen National Liberation Army\u2019s 5th Brigade sent more than 5,000 villagers fleeing to the Thai border seeking aid and sanctuary. This raises serious doubts as to the degree of protection ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) can provide against a major Tatmadaw offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The KNU has also recommended that urban activists who wish to take up arms do not visit their areas, as they are already stretched to supply Karen people with food, shelter, and security, now with the additional influx of over a thousand refugees from the cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
General Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s regime has struggled to establish a functioning administration at home, while on the international front few countries have so far formally recognized Naypyidaw\u2019s new regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. secretary general has strongly pledged to work for the restoration of democracy. His special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has warned that<\/a> no country should recognize or legitimize the junta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the warning did not stop the representatives of eight countries from attending a Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade on March 27 \u2013 the same day the nation mourned the killing by police and military of 114 people, including bystanders and children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and China, major arms suppliers to the Tatmadaw, attended the event, along with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Among Myanmar\u2019s nine fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), only Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam attended. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, which have expressed alarm over the shooting of unarmed demonstrators, were conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, a major international lobbying battle over which government will represent the people of Myanmar is likely unfold in the coming months leading to the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Myanmar\u2019s current ambassador to the United Nations, Kyaw Moe Tun, has lambasted the regime back home, making a passionate speech<\/a> urging the U.N. to use \u201cany means necessary to overturn the military coup.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite being fired by the junta, Kyaw Moe Tun continues to work for U.N. recognition of the CRPH government. Many Myanmar diplomats abroad have also affirmed their allegiance to the ousted democratic government that appointed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various precedents for recognizing the CRPH as the legitimate government. The U.N. credentials committee will no doubt be reminded of the U.N. General Assembly verdict on the Cambodia seat in 1979 after the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge, and its ongoing recognition of a Cambodian coalition government in exile. This controversial precedent could be adapted to deny the U.N. seat to a regime that is driving Myanmar toward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However the clinching argument should be that the new head of state in Myanmar, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was cited as the general who ordered the ethnic cleansing<\/a> of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar\u2019s west, according to a U.N. Fact-Finding Mission report published in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.N. report stated that \u201cMyanmar\u2019s top military generals, including Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, must be investigated and prosecuted for genocide in the north of Rakhine State, as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Rakhine, Kachin, and Shan States.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the junta cannot persuade the U.N. General Assembly to accept its credentials, that will be a huge victory for a CRPH parallel government. Even if China and Russia try to block this move, there could be a compromise option of leaving the seat vacant until democracy is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The hopelessly unrealistic expectations of a speedy U.N. intervention or ASEAN pressure to halt the bloodshed are fast fading. The R2P (responsibility to protect<\/a>) slogans seen on many protest posters and placards in the streets of Yangon represent a desperate appeal for U.N. humanitarian intervention, but so far the protocol has never been used to prevent to prevent crimes against humanity from taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, South argues that R2P status could be applied to the only organizations currently protecting civilians in Myanmar \u2013 the EAOs. \u201cAs the U.N. seems unable to protect the people of Myanmar,\u201d South proposes<\/a>, \u201cit is imperative to recognize and support EAOs, who are struggling to provide assistance and protection both to ethnic nationality civilians targeted by the Myanmar Army, and to those fleeing from the SAC junta\u2019s murderous violence in the towns and cities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As the killing continues unabated and U.N. action is blocked by Russia and China, this idea could have a special relevance as Myanmar moves dangerously close to civil war. A new humanitarian crisis is looming along the Thai-Burmese border after a several air force planes bombed Karen villages<\/a> in zones patrolled by ethnic soldiers belonging to the Karen National Liberation Army. Thailand accepted 3,000 refugees on a temporary basis, but turned back another 2,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Western analysts and risk consultancies have generally concluded that despite the bravery and tenacity of Myanmar\u2019s People Power, their struggle is doomed to defeat, given they are pitted against a ruthless military caste that has run the country for the last 70 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I recall how many diplomats and analysts routinely expressed the same attitude toward East Timor\u2019s demands for independence, as if ending the Indonesian occupation was some absurd fantasy. I was told it would never happen. But by 2000 it had happened, and East Timor \u2013 now Timor-Leste \u2013 became the first new state of the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long\u2013running dictatorships in Indonesia and Philippines were also overthrown by a combination of \u201cpeople\u2019s power\u201d and other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the case of the Philippines, the defection of Gen. Fidel Ramos and the defense minister expedited the downfall of the dictator President Ferdinand Marcos. The United States then crafted the end-game. Marcos and his family were extracted from Manila in a U.S. helicopter, providing a safe exit to Hawaii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly a precise replica of that end-game is not possible in the case of Min Aung Hlaing and his junta. However, the defections of more than 600 police officers<\/a> to the side of the CDM offers evidence that demoralization can happen side-by-side with brutal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia\u2019s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar\u2019s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup \u2013 and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It\u2019s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Can Myanmar\u2019s Protesters Win?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"can-myanmars-protesters-win","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_modified_gmt":"2025-02-02 08:36:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/dctransparency.com\/?p=4727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"prev":true,"total_page":3},"paged":1,"column_class":"jeg_col_2o3","class":"epic_block_3"};

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