For over a year, European leaders and diplomats have been preparing for the possibility of a Trump triumph. There were several tense moments with the former White House leader, and many European leaders disliked Trump’s combative leadership style throughout his first term. Consequently, a lot of people in Brussels rejoiced over Joe Biden’s 2020 win in the hopes of improving relations. Despite the stark reality that new economic warfare may be imminent, European politicians have been eager to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory over Democratic opponent Kamala Harris and his return to the White House. For over a year, European politicians and diplomats have been preparing for the possibility of a Trump triumph, with an increasing emphasis on measures that could shield the European economy from future trade conflicts.
The potential fallout of a Trump presidency
According to many sources who spoke to CNBC, some European leaders woke up to the election results on Wednesday “not wanting to believe.” One EU official, who wished to remain anonymous because of the delicate nature of the transatlantic relationship, stated, “I am seeing it, [and] not wanting to believe.” “But I’m not as surprised as I was the last time.” There were many tense moments with the former White House leader, and many European leaders disliked Trump’s combative leadership style throughout his first term. In anticipation of a better engagement, many in Brussels rejoiced over Joe Biden’s 2020 triumph. “It is not great, again,” stated a second EU source who wished to remain anonymous due to the delicate nature of the relationship. However, the insider acknowledged, “At least, I am not as surprised,” echoing the sentiments of the former official. The first EU leaders to congratulate Trump on Wednesday morning included Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, French President Emmanuel Macron, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
What Europe could face under Trump II
The European continent is not entirely united in its concerns about Trump. According to reports, Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, has already expressed his adoration for Trump and stated that if Trump were elected, he would pop a bottle of champagne. EU leaders will have a chance to talk about their future intentions for the transatlantic alliance when they convene for a regular meeting on Thursday and Friday in Budapest, the capital of Hungary. Trump has said that the European Union would “pay a big price” for not purchasing enough American goods and has threatened to levy an additional 10% in tariffs on European countries. For European countries, trade with the United States is essential. According to figures from the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, the EU and the US have the greatest bilateral trade and investment partnership in the world. In 2021, it hit an all-time high of 1.2 trillion euros ($1.29 trillion). Any extra levies might put more strain on the EU’s already weak economic growth rates. Regarding the European Political Community (EPC) meeting that will begin on November 7, a third unnamed EU source told CNBC Wednesday morning that “there will be a first discussion [on the outcome of the US election] in Budapest.”
The impact on European security and geopolitics
The election of Trump has resulted in Europe’s “worst economic nightmare,” according to ING analysts in a research note released Wednesday morning. The eurozone economy could go from slow growth to a full-blown recession as a result of an impending new trade war. Tariffs on European automobiles would be especially detrimental to the already fragile German economy, which is largely dependent on trade with the United States, according to the group of analysts headed by James Knightley. Given the internal difficulties that many European governments face, it is uncertain whether Trump could lead to closer integration, even though European politicians have stated that they are ready for a second Trump presidency. Europe is probably going to wait to see what policies Trump puts into effect. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said last month at the IMF’s annual meetings in Washington, D.C., that if the United States started a trade war with the European Union, there might be reprisals. He stated, “We would have to consider retaliation, but we need diplomatic efforts to convince whoever enters the White House that it’s not in the best interest of the US to have a trade conflict with the European Union.”
