Europe and the Indo-Pacific are now strategically entwined and no longer separate political and military zones. Europeans and their Asian allies have been more aware in recent years of the strong relationships that bind their economies, civilizations, and security settings together. Through increased diplomatic engagement, improved defense relations, and sanctions on Russia, they have started to collaborate more. However, this developing friendship could be shattered by the new American administration. President-elect Donald Trump’s readiness to undermine or even sever long-standing alliances might persuade allies in Europe and Asia to pursue bilateral agreements rather than foster a cooperative strategy. China and Russia may feel compelled to support Washington’s efforts to protect US security assurances if they are pressed on the issue of security.
A new arena for global diplomacy
However, the answer lies in Europeans doing much more, not less, with their key Asian allies. This includes fostering defense readiness in both Asia and Europe, preserving industrial and economic ties, and staying committed to the climate crisis. For such ambitious diplomacy to succeed, European officials must comprehend the expectations and fears that their colleagues in South Korea, India, and Japan are likely to see in Trump’s America. To better protect itself from a possible Chinese attack, Japan is looking for more collective security mechanisms with the United States as a result of rising geopolitical tensions in its neighborhood. Shigeru Ishiba, the next prime minister, intends to strengthen the United States’ bilateral security partnership. Japan quickly reaffirmed its commitment to working with the US after Trump was elected. Already, Tokyo and Washington are closer than ever, particularly in sectors like industrial production for defense and command and control. The Japanese leadership increased outreach to NATO partners and fortified ties with other regional powers including Australia and the Philippines as a result of the first Trump administration’s contempt for traditional US defense commitments. Now, Japan is probably going to follow this strategy even more vigorously. Tokyo, however, will be keen to demonstrate that it is a valuable regional partner to the US since it still wants to keep American backing. This illustrates how restricted Japan’s foreign policy autonomy is.
Europe’s strategic interests in the region
Pressure on Japan’s export-based economy will increase under the Trump administration, especially in vital industries like auto manufacturing, semiconductors, and batteries. In addition to raising prices in already highly competitive sectors, further US tariffs on Japanese goods would seriously harm Japan’s auto industry in the US. Since China is still Japan’s largest trading partner and its economy is heavily dependent on Chinese supply chains, the country may also experience indirect economic difficulties as a result of the growing US-China trade tensions. Japan will probably increase US-based production in strategic industries in order to evade tariffs and comply with US restructuring objectives. A weaker ruling coalition and a prime minister without a majority are the outcomes of Japan’s recent general election. This will make it more difficult for Japan to preserve strategic independence or make quick changes to its foreign policy, including quickly putting any countermeasures in place in response to undesirable US choices. On the other hand, Tokyo was quite good at subtly influencing Washington’s goals during the first Trump administration under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Today, the Japanese government appears to be under more pressure to meet American demands while also becoming more introspective and reactive.
Shifting dynamics in global alliances
Given the current political climate in which Japan’s decision-makers operate, Europe needs to offer itself as a supporting partner. More precisely, by focusing on common interests and assisting Japan in strengthening security cooperation with South Korea and Australia, the EU should strengthen its strategic alliance with Japan. The bloc should also engage in active economic discussions with ASEAN nations, as this can contribute significantly to both Europe’s and Japan’s de-risking agendas. It ought to support Japan’s active involvement in global organizations like NATO and the G7. By doing this, Tokyo would be able to increase its strategic contribution without overstretching its alliance with Washington or its domestic capabilities. In terms of the economy, Europe ought to expedite projects like the Digital Partnership and strengthen current frameworks like the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. Following the United Kingdom’s intended strategy, major European nations like Germany, France, and Italy should also resume and convene economic “2+2” meetings more frequently, at least twice a year.
