In response to what it described as “terrorist hideouts” in Pakistan, Syria, and Iraq, the Iranian government conducted a string of missile attacks. Pakistan conducted retaliatory assaults and “strongly condemned the unprovoked violation of its airspace” in return, sparking the highest-profile cross-border clash between the two governments in recent memory. Iran’s worldview is predicated on promoting its brand of political Islam and “liberating Iranians from the evils of Western imperialism.” For the past 40 years, Iran has funded a number of extremist organizations across the Middle East in an effort to create an “axis of resistance.” While it’s hard to say how much direct influence Iran has over its network of proxies, their common goals are anti-imperialist and anti-Western.
Understanding Iran’s Regional Strategy
Iran claimed to have struck two strongholds of the anti-Iran rebel organization Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) as it launched missile attacks into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province. Concurrent with its assaults in Syria and Iraq, Iran stated that it was attacking Pakistan. In Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan region, Pakistan retaliated less than two days later, claiming to have attacked the hideouts of anti-Pakistan ethno-nationalist terrorists operating from Iranian land. Pakistan used fighter planes in addition to missiles. With Iranian-backed militias in Iraq attacking American military bases almost daily and the Houthis, another Iranian-backed group, targeting international shipping in the Red Sea, tensions in the region are already high, compounded by the sudden escalation of military hostilities between the two neighboring countries.
Ideological Factors
Nonetheless, the attack in Pakistan is distinct. In general, there have been few border clashes between Iran and Pakistan, or at least they have been limited fairly near to the border and minimized by both sides. Iran deviated from that pattern this time around by declaring the strike. However, there are other factors at play in the recent cross-border assaults than anti-Western ideology. Expert on the Middle East Fabian Hinz speculates that Iran may also be motivated by the chance to showcase its advanced ballistic weaponry. Iran employed the Khyber Shikan missile system, which debuted in 2022, in its longest-range assault. Iran already supplies comparable armaments to Russia and its network of proxies. These latest strikes may be an attempt to broaden the company’s clientele and show its opponents and friends how powerful their missiles are.
Practical Geopolitical Considerations
Giving Iran’s people a sense of power is another pragmatic reason. Iran has been an authoritarian theocracy with restricted political and social liberties since the revolution in 1979, particularly for women. This degree of control is made possible by the official ideology of dread and mistrust of the outside world, even in the face of some opposition. Over the last forty years, the Iranian government’s reputation for strict border and population control has been important in maintaining its revolutionary rule; however, recent terrorist strikes by ISIS and Jaish al-Adl, a militant organization from Balochistan, have put this reputation in jeopardy. Tehran may have a point when it says that the assaults had a national security purpose, but only to the extent that they made the government look like it was doing something to keep the people safe. It is possible that Iran and its supporters are trying to use the US focus on the current crisis in Gaza and Ukraine to further their own agendas, believing that these other conflicts will exhaust the US and its allies and prevent them from acting decisively. It is a calculated strategic action that may have resulted in widespread reprisal in the past, to support its proxies and deepen its connection with Russia at a time when the United States and its allies are reluctant to declare war on another front.
Proxy Warfare and Asymmetric Tactics
Iran’s orchestration of several wars through its proxy network implies that the U.S. is less equipped to respond to Iran’s other regional aims, especially given the U.S. commitment in the Pacific and Ukraine. The Biden administration formed a new maritime security coalition with the UK, codenamed Operation Prosperity Guardian, which has hit over 60 targets at 16 sites in Yemen in an effort to put out the flames Iran started in Gaza and Yemen.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Policymakers are likely to misinterpret Iran’s justification for these strikes since its revolutionary ideology eclipses its pragmatic interests in the Middle East. Iran is in a good position to accomplish its larger foreign policy objectives by overpowering its enemies with disorder, using the diversion provided by Israel and the Ukraine, together with the unrest created by its proxies. Iran is attempting to solidify its regional hegemony and safeguard its general security, and this disarray makes it more difficult for the United States and its allies to respond. Although these are not new objectives for Iran, the Middle East’s peace would suffer greatly if Iran were to acquire regional domination.
