Israel’s indefinite presence in Southern Syria: A recipe for stability or conflict?

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Israel's indefinite presence in Southern Syria
Credit: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images

Israel’s government made it clear that Israeli forces would remain in parts of southern Syria for an indefinite amount of time. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says, in a conference hosted by the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, that his country will not permit Syria’s new army or the rebel organization that overthrew former President Bashar Assad to “enter the area south of Damascus.”

As Damascus’ new leaders try to establish authority after years of civil war, Netanyahu’s remarks at a military graduation raised further worries about Israel’s influence and presence in a large region of southern Syria.

What type of peace has been there in southern Syria from the Israeli side?

Israel’s presence in southern Syria is strongly based on the 1967 Six-Day War and the 1974 ceasefire agreement. The world did not accept Israel’s 1981 takeover of the Golan Heights, a planned region in southwest Syria that it had captured during the Six-Day War. A disarmed buffer zone was established between Israeli and Syrian troops as part of the 1974 ceasefire agreement to reduce tensions and stop military clashes.

There have been many safety impacts from Israel towards Syria over the years. Israel often resorts to force when defending its security and interests. In 2011, after the Syrian Civil War exploded, things were further going towards difficulties. Iranian-backed militias and Hezbollah are the two main concerns of Israel because they are seen as security threats. The new Syrian government is now under the actions of the former rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has played a leading role in the coup. It has made a concern with Israel after Islamist orientation and connections to terrorist groups. 

How did Israel take control of the border areas?

In December 2024, after Bashar al-Assad’s government fell, Syria was left without a head and was going towards a downfall. Israel is taking control of the demilitarized buffer zone due to security reasons and the need to stop better forces from gaining a base near its borders. To ensure the demilitarization of the region as well as to protect the Druze citizens, a minority community that has settlements in both southern Syria and the Golan Heights, Netanyahu’s government is firmly stating that Israeli troops would remain in southern Syria for all eternity.

Security issues are the primary motivation behind Netanyahu’s move to maintain soldiers in southern Syria. Israel’s national security is gravely under threat from the region’s proximity to the Israeli border and the potential for enemy forces to base themselves there. Israel wants to monitor and deter any military operations that would threaten its citizens or essential resources by occupying the buffer zone and maintaining a presence on Mount Hermon.

Global outrage has been directed against Israel’s activities in southern Syria. Israel’s occupation of the buffer zone has been condemned by the UN, France, and several Arab nations, who assert that it is a land grab and a breach of the 1974 ceasefire accord. These remarks reflect how challenging it is for Israel to balance complex international relationships while justifying its actions as necessary for security.

The HTS-influenced new Syrian leadership would view Israel’s actions as an obstacle to asserting its supremacy in the country. Israel took control of the UN-patrolled buffer zone on Syrian territory following the overthrow of Assad in December. A ceasefire accord from 1974 established the zone. UN officials and Syria’s new leadership have demanded that Israel leave the country.

Why is Netanyahu’s administration under pressure?

Netanyahu’s administration has been under pressure to defend northern Israelis who live close to the border. Israel will “strengthen ties with friendly populations in the region,” according to Katz. One such group is the Druze, a religious minority that manages their historically Syrian identity while living under Israeli sovereignty in both southern Syria and Israel’s Golan Heights.

Diplomatic efforts and continued global condemnation may pressure Israel to reverse its stance. Israel will not vacate without other provisions that ensure its security, however, due to its security issues. The scenario will be significantly influenced by how the new Syrian government manages its relations with Israel. Conflict or worse tensions may ensue if Syria attempts to exert control over southern regions. The balance could shift if other regional actors, such as Iran or Turkey, become involved. These powers’ alliances or conflicts can potentially further stabilize or destabilize the region. But it would require much diplomatic effort on the part of all involved to achieve such an agreement.

Research Staff

Research Staff

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