One noteworthy feature of Donald Trump’s first term, particularly in African countries, was his disparaging call of several African countries “shithole countries.” Trump, who mostly ignored the continent during his first term as president, used the phrase in 2018. In response to the U.S. election results, the pan-African magazine The Continent published a cartoon of Trump wearing a long red tie, cutting the U.S. out of a globe, and whistling while holding the cutout country form beneath his arm. As stated in the caption,
“We must be our leaders now.”
If only everything were that easy. The United States is not going to leave Africa anytime soon. The power battle with China, Trump’s environment policies, the influence of right-wing evangelical organizations in the new government, and the promises to deport millions of immigrants, on the other hand, will have a profound effect from Cairo to Johannesburg.
Key policy shifts under Trump II
African leaders were therefore ready to congratulate the victor of the election and to look for American lobbyists who could give them access to the Trump administration. Some went into this feeling victorious, while others were anxious or apprehensive. The far-right Heritage Foundation’s 900-page Project 2025 report, which is frequently used as a model for a second Trump administration, suggests that instead of allocating funds indiscriminately throughout Africa, the government should choose “focus countries.” This implies that funding for UN initiatives and multilateral organizations is either minimal or nonexistent. As an alternative, the emphasis would be on nations that are anticipated to have a “mutually beneficial relationship,” which would entail a “full suite of American engagement,” such as military assistance, better access to the U.S. market, and bilateral economic aid. While Project 2025 doesn’t specify exactly what African countries need to do to be named “focus countries,” some requirements are clear: avoid criticism of Israel and its treatment of Palestinians; maintain conservative family values while rejecting health and family planning programs that encourage abortion or contraception; make no more demands for reform of the U.S.-dominated international financial architecture; and accept deported immigrants without protest. China has gained access to many strategically important resources in Africa.
Trade, aid, and diplomacy
Silence on global climate protection is also anticipated. Trump will discover opportunities with some of his demands. However, this won’t always be the case. He will run into opposition to other demands, though not always. For example, Uganda’s ruling party was happy after the Biden administration criticized it for its discriminatory anti-LGBTQ legislation. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, who has strong commercial links to China, was equally enthusiastic. Given that Ethiopia, which is primarily Christian Orthodox, frequently portrays itself as a bastion against Islamism, the new U.S. leadership may sympathize with his Ethiopia First strategy. President William Ruto of Kenya, on the other hand, seems nervous about Trump’s comeback. The Biden administration, which courted Ruto as the head of a pro-American bastion (while generously disregarding pervasive corruption and lethal police violence), had just made his country the African darling. Cyril Ramaphosa, the president of South Africa, likewise responded in a conflicted manner. Biden found it horrifying that South Africa had filed a case against Israel in the International Criminal Court, claiming that Israel had perpetrated and was committing genocide in Gaza. South Africa might unfavorably become a “focus” nation under Trump, subject to several punitive actions.
The geopolitical landscape
Here is the initial list of African voters who lost the U.S. election. For the LGBTQ community in Africa, which is already dealing with a backlash, the outcome is hazardous and nasty. Not just in Uganda, where there are currently some situations in which homosexuality can result in death. Washington can no longer be relied upon to enforce human rights. NGOs and lobby groups that are homophobic and evangelical will instead become more powerful. For millions of African women who rely on UN family planning and health services, the situation is just as bad. Trump’s planned cuts to multilateral organizations and a return to the taboo around abortion and contraception will result in significant budget cuts for them. Africa’s climate initiatives will be the most severely affected. Despite making a negligible contribution to global emissions, the continent bears a disproportionate amount of the burden of climate change. Trump will probably reduce already inadequate financial flows to Global South countries that require assistance in overcoming crop failures, droughts, floods, and energy system transitions, even though he cannot halt the global trend toward renewable energy. Notwithstanding these difficulties in the wake of the U.S. elections, African climate justice movements show no signs of giving up.