The Syrian Civil War has continued since 2011 and has grown into an exceedingly complicated multi-national conflict. With Russia’s involvement in 2015, most of Syria returned under the government of Bashar al-Assad, drastically tipping the balance of power toward Assad. Most recently, he was dethroned by Islamist groups mainly backed by Turkey, creating a world of volatility all over again. It has a sizable military presence in Syria, centrally located on its air base in Latakia and a navy facility in Tartus.
What kind of Russia’s involvement in Syria?
Israel perceives Russia’s continued involvement as vital to balance the power protruding from Turkiye. Among others, it backs Islamist groups in Syria, which Israel sees as constituting a threat to it. The region is becoming increasingly of concern among Israel as Turkiye’s interest in that region is growing. By weakening and scattering Syria, this is attempting to ensure that entities that it believes are rivals won’t rise to prominence. Israel’s main concern is that Turkey would give shelter to these elements, compromising Israel’s borders.
Support of Turkiye is a real danger, as it is believed an Islamist group may find its way to the borders of Israel after being supported by a very powerful Turkiye. It helps to support the view that the maintenance of the Russian presence is a major counterweight in dissuading Turkey from continually expanding its control over the entire region. In this regard, the new Islamist authority in Syria, backed by Turkey poses a direct danger to Israel. If Turkiye expedites these organizations, it is feared that these organizations will become considerably stronger and pose a serious threat to the borders of Israel.
Israel feels that a weak and disorganized Syria is preferable to one that is a well-organized state governed by Islamist extremists. This development lessens the possibility that Syria may be turned into a launching pad for attacks against Israel, as well as prevents any single state from emerging as the dominant power in the region.
Israel’s lobbying efforts
The Russian presence ties together the balance of power in the region. Keeping that balance of power is of utmost importance to ensure that any one actor, especially Turkiye, does not get to exert excessive power in the region. To contain jihadists within Syria, Israel seeks to keep Russia’s presence felt in Syria to counter Islamist insurgency threats to Israel. This strategy is assumed to be very useful in keeping the security of Israel intact.
Israel’s lobbying efforts should be weighed against broader US geopolitical objectives in the region. While American suspicion of Russian intervention in Syria has always been present, Israel’s position could have implications for American strategy, especially under the current administration.
To mop up what they could have in US-Turkish relations, they would argue that the preference Israel has displayed towards Russian influence rather than Turkish influence was curious given Turkey’s status within NATO. This shows how complicated regional alliances and geopolitical preferences are. This highlights the need for prudent diplomacy and the natural balance of power that has evolved. It is yet to be seen how long Russian bases in Syria will last. Russia has taken steps to remove some of its assets, and it will be determined how long it will keep military bases through trade talks with Syria’s new leadership.
How could Russian bases be maintained in Syria?
The lobbying initiatives of Israel to maintain the operational status of the Russian military bases in Syria indicate an elaborate geopolitical plan to counter Turkiye’s influence and ensure a certain degree of regional stability. Although the strategies may bring Israel short-term benefits, they equally constitute a challenge and uncertainties for the Middle East. The United States needs to carefully weigh such priorities in its regional discourse with consideration of the successful balance between strategic relations concerned with upholding stability and averting war in future circumstances.
The Syrian situation will, therefore, evolve in future interactions with great powers like Russia, Turkey, and the United States. While Israel continues to take premeditated steps to defend its security, it will continue to affect the evolution of this inheritance of turf within a dynamic environment.
